Tehran Regime Attack on Saudi Arabia Demands a Response
The Iranian regime has been escalating its aggression all
year, with attacks against oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, outright
seizure of commercial ships and crews, drone attacks against Saudi oil
infrastructure by terror proxies in Iraq and Yemen, and now, a direct attack
from Iranian territory by both drones and cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia.
The 14 September 2019 attack on two of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing
facilities (the Abqaiq and Khurais plants) reportedly took out nearly half of
the Kingdom’s daily oil output, resulting in a 5% cut to overall world
production.
This is an act of war, direct, unequivocal, and with no room
for plausible deniability. It must be met with an equally direct, prompt,
kinetic response. It is up to the Saudi government, of course, to issue a
statement that fixes responsibility for the attack firmly with the Tehran
regime and to verify exactly where the attack originated. U.S. and Saudi
officials are in direct consultations over the course to take in response to
the Iranian attack.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has released
satellite images that show the direction of attack did not come from
the south, that is, did not come from Yemen. In a 14 September Tweet, Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo said as much, asserting “there is no evidence
the attacks came from Yemen.”
Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) September 14, 2019
And this time, it seems that the attacks were not launched
by Qods Force-commanded Hashd-e Shaabi Shi’ite terror militias in Iraq, either.
Following an earlier denial that Iraqi territory was used to launch the strikes
by Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, Secretary
Pompeo confirmed by phone to him that the U.S. does not suspect these
attacks originated from Iraq.
The following day, 15 September, President Trump Tweeted his
confidence about the “culprit” for the attack and declared the U.S. “locked
and loaded depending on verification.”
Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2019
It is clear that the Trump administration is placing the
blame for the attacks against Saudi Arabia firmly on the Iranian regime,
wherever they may have been launched from. Tensions, already high in the
region, are now spiking along with gasoline prices. On 15 September, President
Trump authorized release of oil from the U.S.
Strategic Reserve if necessary to maintain a steady supply on world
markets. The official response from the administration thus far has been
measured, in part to allow Riyadh to take the lead in deciding on appropriate
course of action but assuring the Saudi Kingdom that the U.S. stands ready to support
it, following urgent talks over the weekend.
Tehran will not stop its aggressive behavior because of
sanctions alone, although that ratcheting financial pressure is certainly
causing severe hardship for the Islamic Republic. Over a year ago, in July
2018, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that “If Iran’s oil
export is blocked, no other country in the region will export oil either.”
These most recent attacks against Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure make clear
that he meant what he said. There will have to be a firm response this time,
preferably by a joint effort that includes at a minimum the U.S. and Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia.
About Clare M. Lopez
Clare M. Lopez is Vice President for Research & Analysis
at the Center for Security Policy. She previously was a Senior Fellow
with the Center as well as with the London Center for Policy Research, member
of Sen. Ted Cruz’ 2016 presidential campaign national security advisory team,
Executive Director of the Iran Policy Committee, and a career operations
officer with the CIA. Read her
complete bio here. Follow Lopez on Twitter @ClareMLopez
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