Tehran has kept up the flow of arms and financial support to proxy forces even as Washington pressures Iran’s economy
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| Ali Khamenei visited a military academy in Tehran in June
Iran is signaling that it will buck U.S. efforts to roll back its military presence in the Middle East, moving to cement foreign alliances and continuing to project power abroad despite sanctions that have helped put intense pressure on its economy.
Tehran signed a long-term security pact with Syria in August and has kept up the flow of arms and financial support to proxy forces around the region, according to U.S. officials and a person close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia.
On Sunday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a meeting with air force commanders that Iran needed to boost its personnel and buy more equipment, though he said a war was unlikely. He didn’t elaborate.
Members of Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary units in Baghdad in June. PHOTO: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Iran’s defiant stance comes is its currency plummets and foreign investors pull out, largely due to rising tension between Washington and Tehran. In May, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal, which administration officials indicated was part of a broader effort to curtail Iran’s activities in the Middle East, and said he was reimposing sanctions.
“In my judgment, what Iran is doing today is simply a continuation of what they have been doing for a long time, which is to harden themselves, build what alliances they can and prepare for the day” when conflict with the U.S. might erupt, Lt. Gen. Michael Nagata of the National Counterterrorism Center said at a conference Wednesday hosted by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank.
U.S. officials acknowledge Iran hasn’t stepped back from its assertive posture and say Iranian shipments of missiles and some advanced arms around the region have even accelerated. But they also note that the toughest sanctions are yet to come.
Iran has long sought to spread military power and political clout beyond its borders. It is a major backer of the Assad regime in Syria, which is gearing up for what could be a decisive battle in its more than seven-year war with rebels. Iran has also long supported Shiite militias in Iraq and has been accused in recent years of supplying arms to Houthi rebels in Yemen fighting a coalition led by Iran’s rival, Saudi Arabia—a charge Tehran denies.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia is central to Tehran’s strategy, and it has spearheaded Iran’s intervention in Syria on behalf of the Syrian regime. Iran has maintained its financing for the militia’s war effort, according to the person close to the group.
“Not much has changed,” the person said. “Wages are paid, training and funding are the same.”
Iran’s economy, however, is under growing stress. The value of the rial has fallen almost 70% this year, from 45,000 to the dollar in January to 140,000 on Wednesday, a historic low. The Iranian parliament’s research center forecasts the economy to shrink between 3.8% and 5.5% in the coming Iranian fiscal year, which starts next March.
the fighter secured a June rally in Sana'a, Yemen. PHOTO: MOHAMED AL-SAYAGHI/REUTERS
Tehran doesn’t provide exact information on its military spending. But according to the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran spent about $14 billion on its military in 2017, a 15% increase from the year before.
Making estimates is also complicated because the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which oversees Iran’s military operations abroad, plays an extensive role in the black-market economy. It also runs companies that will face less competition with the pullout of foreign firms.
In the past, however, Iran has managed to shield its military operations from the economic turmoil at home. For example, Iran sent personnel and weapons to prop up the Syrian regime while it was under sanctions imposed by President Obama.
“It is an absolutely misguided perception that the Iranians will retreat from the region if they have economic problems,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, an independent think tank. “Whenever they come under increased pressure, they feel the need to double down.”
Iranian analysts also say that many of Tehran’s foreign operations are also inexpensive, allowing it to pick its fights and prod its enemies.
“Iran’s presence in Syria today is limited and not costly,” said Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst at Tehran University, whose views often support the Iranian establishment. “The same can be said about Iraq. The war against ISIS was largely funded by the Iraqi government and it is almost finished, so Iran’s presence is limited and not a financial burden.”
The U.S. has also shouldered a large part of the burden of fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, spending more than $18.6 billion from August 2014 through March 2018, according to Pentagon figures.
The Trump administration still hopes to reverse what officials see as a significant Iranian presence in the region, by sanctioning its oil industry and access to foreign currency.
In Iraq, Iranian military personnel operate reconnaissance drones and train Shiite militias, U.S. officials say. U.S. officials also confirmed to The Wall Street Journal a report by Reuters that Iran has sent short-range missiles to Shiite militias in Iraq. They added that the Iranians’ intentions weren’t entirely clear and that missiles weren’t being openly displayed.
Iran has called the reports of missile shipments false, intended to drum up fear of Tehran.
Iraqi military commanders met in Baghdad recently with Iranian, Syrian and Russian counterparts. PHOTO: SYRIAN STATE TELEVISION /AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Twitter recently that he was “deeply concerned” about the reports. “If true, this would be a gross violation of Iraqi sovereignty,” he said, adding that “Baghdad should determine what happens in Iraq, not Tehran.”
Iran has exercised some restraint in confronting the U.S., according to analysts who noted that it has stopped harassing U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf and hasn’t tested a medium-range missile since July 2017.
While Tehran has rebuffed the Trump administration’s demands that it withdraw from Syria, it has pulled its forces out of the southwestern areas near the Israeli border at the behest of Russia, which sought to accommodate Israeli concerns.
Yet such moves are an example of Iranian “strategic patience,” not a withdrawal, said Mr. Vaez. “Iran might have decided to slow down. But it’s a passing phase.”
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