The collapse of the strategic depth of the Iranian regime in Iraq to Syria and Yemen

Bahar Mehr

My article first published in The Herald Report
https://herald.report/collapse-of-strategic-depth-of-iran-regime-iraq-syria-yemen/

One of the indicators of the ruling regime in Iran is the interference in the countries of the region and the issuance of terrorism and the creation of insecurity in these countries with the slogan of the mullahs issued by the issuance of the revolution, which has always been mentioned by the political and military leaders of the regime as the strategic depth of the system.

But developments over the past few weeks have been indicative of the collapse of the power of the clerical regime and its "mercenaries" in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

In the present article, I briefly examine the situation in these three countries and the impact on the regime's presence.

Iraq

After the burning of the regime's consulate in Basra by the angry people, the regime attributed it to the United States and Saudi Arabia in its domestic propaganda, but the regime's congressional council in Basra, who was also on the scene, and Iraqi regime's ambassador in Iraq, could not say so, and eventually said, "We do not accuse anyone and group of people to be investigated."

The fear of losing control of Shiites in Iraq was such that the regime and its government launched a military rule in Basra and, as Walid Phares  said, the regime and militias have supported the ten armies to suppress the people of Basra

Iran backed Iraqi militias mobilizing to deploy ten divisions in Basra to crush the youth and civil society rebellion against the Government. The largest number of militia troops is now deployed to fight a revolt instead of fighting ISIS. https://t.co/05NoTXq6Ia

— Walid Phares (@WalidPhares) September 14, 2018

But we noticed that the youth and the people of Basra once again resumed their protest rallies

The @UN is urging the #Iraqi government to heed the demands of #Basra protesters. Urgent action required.#BaghdadPost pic.twitter.com/5elfbznhCq

— The Baghdad Post (@TheBaghdadPostE) September 16, 2018

The regime is very worried about its hegemony in Iraq
As an example, Alireza Panahian, a Khaleeji mullah, referring to the regime's dramatic program for Arbaeen expressed concern over the disruption and said: "Our task in Muharram 97 (Iranian year), conflict with those who create differences between us." or Kazemi Qomi, the former regime's ambassador to Iraq on September 11th, told the regime's TV: " It is possible that we will witness such attacks against the interests of the Islamic Republic. "


Interestingly, both developments in Iraq are very similar to the social movement in Iran, and the regime's reactions to these protests are just as similar to what is being said about the protests in the cities of Iran.

Syria

Over the past days - massive protests have taken place in various parts of the province of Idlib, a protesting crowd in the recent days of the Idlib demonstration that was remarkable.
After this, resisting the crimes of the Mullahs and Assad regime with the participation of Russia in the mass killing of the people, following the anti-humanist approach to the burned land.
Many political circles in the world believed that the resistance in Syria had come to an end and that it would leave empty resistance after the attack on the Syrian land of Idlib.

But these massive mass protests and radical slogans, "We neither negotiate nor go short, the criminal Bashar al-Assad must go"; many of the minds have changed, and the sound that seemed to no longer come to pass, the beginning of some The developments have followed

In the seven countries, a small group (including the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt) which was formed in recent days in connection with the Syrian issue Al-Assad's alleviation of power and the interruption of his relations with Tehran have been emphasized.

One of the concerns expressed by the government newspaper, the "Islamic Republic", has been evident in the government's "Islamic Republic" paper, which states: "Opponents who have no longer had to lose, but by adopting contentious positions, as if they were victorious in the field War, they want to impose their own terms on everyone. »
Then, on the outcome of the demands of the Syrian resistance, he says: "By reviewing the conditions of the adversaries and the terrorists, one can better understand what the case is. Syria must cut off its relations with Iran and Iranian troops will leave Syria. Bashar al-Assad will withdraw from power "

Yemen

In Yemen, we are seeing new developments over the course of three years during the war, although nothing has been said about the content of the Houthi talks.
But the scene on the ground in Yemen as well as on the scene of the negotiation and composition of the participating countries also shows the regime's lowering of the balance of power over Yemen.
The announcement of the US government's position of full support for the Arab coalition in Yemen is a transformation.
Also, the White House warns that if the United States considers the clerical regime responsible for any action that threatens US interests in Yemen and of course, it has already been emphasized on Iraq, in which case it will show a quick and decisive response.

Conclusion

In order to conclude this review, it is better to look more closely at the domestic, regional and international conditions in which the regime is located:

Within Iran, the severity and risk of explosive conditions are felt more than ever on the diet.
A sample of "Akhund Saeedi prayed in Qom Friday said: Pessimism to the Revolutionary Guards Corps and defensive activities of the Revolutionary Guards Pessimism to the government to the parliament to the judiciary institutions to the revolutionary foundations is a very dangerous thing."
"Hussein Kamali, a minister of Rafsanjani's government, said," If the people's demand for change does not pay attention to the risk of violent changes, Iran's society will move towards radical approaches. "

From the point of view of international pressure, the regime is on the verge of passing through three decisive timeframes.

Security Council meeting September 26 to address regional interference of the regime one day after Rouhani's speech at the General Assembly
The AFTF deadline for October 1 is to transfer the regime from the gray list to the blacklist, which is the consequence of the complete amputation of the regime's banking system.

U.S. policy to deny Iran oil revenue is an existential threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic. And Washington is doing it through a Reagan-like economic warfare toolbox.

Iran’s oil exports are down sharply since the beginning of August as big buyers like China and India curtail their purchases in anticipation of U.S. sanctions. The Islamic Republic’s crude sales dropped by 600,000 barrels to 1.68 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of August, a 20% decrease from the same time in July. Exports are down a whopping 62% since May, when Iranian oil sales reached a record 2.7 million b/d.

The falloff marks the fourth straight month of declining exports for the Islamic Republic, which coincides directly with President Donald Trump’s May 8th withdrawal from JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), also known as the Iran Deal. The termination of the U.S.-Iran agreement means a re-imposition of sanctions that the United States lifted two years ago. The end of sanction relief will come in two stages, the first of which began on August 7th.  These include restrictions on the following

• Iran’s purchase of U.S. currency;
• Iran’s trade in gold and other precious metals; and
• the sale to Iran of auto parts, commercial passenger aircraft, and related parts and services

The second and more significant stage will come into effect on November 4th, wherein sales of oil, gas, and refined petroleum products will be restricted. Iran’s petroleum sector is the heart of its economy: in 2016 Iranian crude sales were valued at $36 billion.  Countries (specifically their central banks) which continue to buy oil and petroleum products from Iran after the deadline may be subject to secondary sanctions, greatly limiting their ability to do business in and with the U.S.

Yes more importantly, on November 4, the start of oil and banking sanctions began in the regime, which saw the situation as a bachelor like Zebaclam, causing the regime's breathlessness, the "economic chaos that brought the system to its knees", to the negotiating table.
And now add the regional conditions as described, see what the regime will be.
All of this, in a word, is a clear indication of the regime's "end-of-life".

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